Like many of you, I’ve spent the last few days with my faith in humanity restored, digesting the result and basking in the pleasant glow of what was a sweet but entirely unexpected victory for common sense. Like most Brexiteers, I’m sadly having my convictions confirmed on a rather-too-regular basis when I compare the genuinely happy, dignified behaviour of the winners, with the real face of the Remain voters – stamping their feet, and threatening to hold their breath until they die unless those “racists” make a new vote, and let them win.
The UK doesn’t exist as a country any more, they say (missing the irony of what they just voted for). Scotland will leave and re-join the EU. No one will trade with us. Our economy is suddenly smaller than that of France. Our markets will crash, the pound will collapse…ho hum. They forget that project fear didn’t work this time – the wizard has lost his power and we’ve realized that the emperor in fact, has no clothes.
So what will really happen in the next two years? Let’s examine the fear stories first:
Will Cameron resign but fail to trigger Article 50?
Not likely – in fact the Telegraph quoted him today saying the opposite. While it might have appeased the cry babies short term (most of whom would never vote for him anyway), he’d be going against his word, damaging his party, and would leave him with an even more toxic legacy than before. Now the country has spoken, both Cameron and the EU are keen to make a brisk and orderly exit, and that is likely to be the case, despite certain parties interested in chaos (as you’ll see later).
Will Scotland go independent?
Not likely – Remain voters conveniently forget that UK is a kind of a big deal. Too big a deal to handle roughly through Brexit, and while Sturgeon will try all sorts of chicanery to slow things down, it’s likely she’ll both end up damaging her own reputation and support as people realise she’s really just getting in the way and hurting the economy.
The Germans need to and want to trade with us. As do the Irish, the French, the Dutch, the Swedes, and even the Estonians. A clear win/win result without any bitterness, emotion and acrimony is what any mature and rational politician will seek, and so the UK will inevitably and swiftly join the EEA/EFTA. This, essentially is the best of all worlds, just like Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland (Switzerland is in EFTA but voted to leave EEA. It retains most of the benefits, just on static basis) Free trade, and movement but no paying for French farmers, Spanish fishermen, or wine mountains.
Scotland going ‘independent’ (quotation marks because it won’t really be independence) will almost certainly mean joining the Euro – its main trading partner is rUK, which will retain the Pound. The Oil argument has been thoroughly debunked – oil is a small and shrinking part of our economy, and the treatment of a tiny Indy Scotland joining the EU would be very different from that of the UK.
While many Scots vote with their heart, many more vote with their head. Scots are canny enough to know that an ‘Indy2’ vote will not be a vote for independence; it will be a vote to swap London for being a minor region, ruled by Brussels. I for one, while believing in the principle of true Independence, will become a tactical Unionist for that vote, and I suspect our fishermen, businessmen and those with common sense will join me in the jump, if it ever got to that.
The Markets will crash.
In the time it took to debunk the wailing ‘Britain’s economy is now smaller than France!!’ myth. The UK market (as well as the other major world markets) have already partly recovered from what was, in fact, a small blip. Markets fall on uncertainty, and as the path to EEA/EFTA becomes clear along with the timeframe, everything will be hunky dory. However, the thought of remain voters crying themselves to sleep telling their teddies ‘It’th jutht not fair!’ was, to me, very much worth that blip.
We’re entering a right-wing, reactionary, Farage era.
Quite the opposite. (The ugliness of Nationalism will be foisted on the Scottish public for an Indy2 though, of course. But that’s different, isn’t it?).
Nigel Farage – contrary to Project Fear newspeak – isn’t stupid and he doesn’t hate foreigners (just ask his wife). He’s not an even an MP and his party has just one seat in Parliament. He just did himself out of a job (as a Libertarian, I feel that’s the most honourable thing a politician can do). The logic of the ‘Farage era’ statement is beyond comprehension, and only appeals to the peddlers of fear – those people who are desperately trying to whip up ‘racism’ in order to say, ‘I told you so, look at those horrible people’, and thus feel all smug and warm and better than the plebs whose cultures are overrun. (The psychology behind this middle class guilt connected to ‘racism and ‘sexism’ chants could fill a whole book, but lets leave that for another day.).
What is interesting here, and dangerous, is the sheer power of the Project Fear echo chamber. ‘They’re racists’, was the cry, without bothering to meet any Brexiteers. Ignoring the fact that Jeremy Clarkson was, in fact, on their side. Perhaps its different in Scotland, where ‘Leave’ voters were just normal people who simply don’t see the need for another group of disinterested politicians making bad decisions for us and taking our money, while slowly but surely encroaching on every part of our lives. But I doubt the English, Welsh and Northern Irish Leave voters are, in fact, any different.
There is a genuine fear now (see below) that a certain type of right-wing, anti-immigrant populist vote would grow exponentially – but by voting for Brexit and taking control of our own country, we’ve likely nipped that in the bud rather than the opposite. We’ll be less opaque and it will be even more difficult for the likes of Putin to back British Nazis (the extreme right does very poorly in UK elections when compared with Germany, Hungary, Austria etc.). Control of our immigration system will give our immigrants time to integrate and become British, smoothing the path and allowing new immigrants to be a positive contribution to society that earn the respect of locals – the spice in the soup that benefits the whole. We might even wrest control of our education system back from the hard left (I can but dream…).
The other scare stories that came out – no one will trade with us, EU students will no longer be able to study in UK without their fees doubling…seriously? David Lammy (the MP previously known only for being fined for making a record breaking 35000 nuisance phone calls in 2 days) has started a petition to bypass the democratic process, drawing a surprising 39,000 signers from…The Vatican City (population 800).
Do these even need to be debunked? I suspect they will debunk themselves in due course.
However, there are real dangers on the horizon and malignant forces at work.
George Soros and his billionaire buddies allegedly lost a few dollars – though I’m sure he’s clever enough to be playing both sides. Cameron, Blair, Hillary and a whole gang of Remain shills – as well as the EU ‘leaders’ – have egg on their faces. Paid content in all the usual places is telling us how we’re all doomed. Internet bots worldwide are busy signing the petition for the re-vote, since the ‘right’ side didn’t win.
But since the cards are on the table during this maelstrom of lies, we can see exactly how they work, and thus I’m positive for the future. I consider myself a Europhile – I like Europeans, I’ve lived in Europe for many years, and count a great number as friends. I plan to continue to enjoy visiting Germany, Spain, Estonia, wherever. But it has also become glaringly obvious that any kind of positive plan for the EU was, and is, very much in danger of being derailed by interests that don’t have the welfare of you or I at heart.
The fear is real, and we must understand, and avoid it. Ramping up the refugee numbers will, of course, fan the flames of the reactionary demagogues. Putin knows this too – he, like Soros will be behind the scenes, fomenting fear and chaos, focused more on backing the right, and destabilizing the family unit via their long time sponsorship of Frankfurt School inspired movements and control of our education system, the Russians and the internationalists have Europe caught in a pincer movement, that can only end badly.
But we may yet escape the chaos. The biggest challenge here is to resist the rise of populist demagoguery – not just in UK, but all across Europe, because that’s what the enemies of freedom want. Injecting chaos into a debt ridden nation is the way to own that nation via mass foreclosure, and that’s what convicted insider trader George Soros and his friends are looking to achieve again, on an even larger scale than 2008.
We need to lead Europe by example, not dawdle in isolation. A Europe of independent free trading nation states who control their own destiny and have aligned self-interests, will always work better than giving up sovereignty to the powerful but predatory forces of international finance, or the machinations of an old school empire builder like Russia. Real economies are built by making, growing, building things, and trading them with each other. Creating mountains of cheap debt, then cutting it off and foreclosing is the oldest trick in the book, and the gift that keeps on giving for international finance. Remain voters were, and perhaps are, no more than useful idiots in the eyes of Soros, Clinton and Blair, and their fight will go on to spread fear – to discredit the democratic vote, to break up the UK, and plunge Europe into chaos. A war is a great way to collapse a region and pick up all its assets.
I backed hope, and I sincerely believe the British people who, having found a backbone, and have now found they have a voice, won’t let fear control them. Soros and his minions have been defeated, for now. But I suspect the war for our freedom is just beginning.